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Linked by Jason Snell

Ben Thompson on Apple’s forecast error

Here’s a great piece by Ben Thompson about how Apple missed its mark on iPhone sales:

Secondly, thanks in part to the lack of information, this miss is catnip for confirmation bias: everyone has their pet theory about what Apple is doing wrong or how they will ultimately fail, and it has been striking the degree to which this revenue warning has been breezily adapted to show that said critics were right all along (never mind that many of those critics trotted out the exact same explanations in 2013 and 2016).

The whole thing is great. The smell of confirmation bias is strong, but there are lots of underlying reasons why Apple should’ve predicted this better.